How do production, demand, pricing, and channel assumptions shape the commercial plan?
Model profile
Wine Agri-business
Integrated South African wine business: a greenfield drip-irrigated Western Cape vineyard planted in a chosen year, with three vintages before its first crop, grapes bought from independent growers from the first vintage, a winery sized on the vintage peak (with a second stage when a larger vineyard needs it) that crushes grapes the day they are picked and makes estate red wine matured for twelve months, white and rose wine, and bulk wine for export, and a commercial arm selling bottled wine in South Africa and abroad. The vineyard, the winery and the commercial arm are run as profit centres trading at arm's-length transfer prices, each with its own P&L, cash flow, IRR and NPV and its break-even transfer terms, consolidated with the internal sales eliminated, with excise, financing sized on the lender's cover covenant, and returns, in rand.
Decision scope
Questions this model helps you examine
What capacity, working capital, operating cost, and funding does the business require?
How do downside cases and key sensitivities affect cash flow and investment returns?
Model capabilities
What this model includes
The profile below is generated from the same catalogue and workspace definitions used by the application.
- 120 ha greenfield vineyard planted in a chosen year: first crop in the third leaf, full crop from the fifth
- Yield set from vines per hectare and grapes per vine; vintage in February and March
- Grapes bought from growers from the first vintage; cellar sized on the vintage peak month, expanded when the vineyard needs it
- Red, white and rose, and bulk wine recipes with an editable mix; reds sold after twelve months in the cellar
- Vineyard, winery and commercial profit centres at arm's-length grape and wine transfer prices
- Segment P&L, cash flow, standalone IRR and NPV, break-even transfer terms, and consolidation eliminations
- South African excise, company tax and VAT, in rand
- Base case and eight stress scenarios
- Risk analytics
- XLSX and PDF exports
Build the case
Inputs and workspaces
- AssumptionsCore model inputs
- FarmingLand, crops, water
- StorageCapacity and losses
- ManufacturingProducts and throughput
- CommercialSales and collections
- FundingDebt, equity, covenants
- Advanced schedulesSpecialist operations, staff, asset, and master-data tables
- Risk & analyticsScenarios and predictive models
Review the result
Outputs and analysis
- Project NPVZAR
- Project IRRPre-tax
- Minimum DSCRLowest period
- Vineyard NPVStandalone
- Winery NPVStandalone
- Commercial NPVStandalone
- Output hashSHA-256
- FarmingDetailed schedules
- StorageDetailed schedules
- ManufacturingDetailed schedules
- CommercialDetailed schedules
- FinancialDetailed schedules
- Supporting schedulesDetailed schedules
- Risk & predictiveDetailed schedules
Designed for review
Who this model is for
- Founders and business owners
- Production and commercial teams
- Financial advisers
- Investors and lenders
Governed evidence
The review trail stays with the result.
Each completed calculation preserves the model version, saved inputs, reporting-currency snapshot, immutable run, and result fingerprint used for its reports.
- Version-controlled calculation logic
- Saved assumptions and scenarios
- Immutable calculation runs
- Reporting context preserved in exports
Ready to explore the case?