How do build-out, utilisation, pricing, and operating assumptions shape project performance?
Model profile
Wind Green Hydrogen
A wind farm built to power an electrolyser, set up for South Africa or for any country you choose: a 20 MW alkaline electrolyser on a 50 MW onshore wind farm in the Eastern Cape, selling hydrogen to an industrial buyer under a 20-year contract and the wind it cannot use under a wheeling agreement. Other cases: a PEM electrolyser, more wind, a wind farm with no export, an export ammonia price, no grant, and a concessional package. Tested the way a lender would: the wind's P50 and P90, how many hours the electrolyser runs, the stacks, the levelised cost of the hydrogen against its price, and debt sized on the cash the project can service.
Decision scope
Questions this model helps you examine
What capital, replacement, working capital, and financing programme is required?
How resilient are cash flows and returns under operational and market downside cases?
Model capabilities
What this model includes
The profile below is generated from the same catalogue and workspace definitions used by the application.
- The wind farm sized from the electrolyser, with surplus power exported and curtailment
- Wind dispatched from a Weibull wind-speed distribution calibrated to the P50 capacity factor
- Alkaline or PEM electrolysers, with stack ageing and replacement
- Hydrogen under an indexed purchase agreement, then at a merchant price
- Surplus power under a wheeling PPA, certificates and oxygen sales
- A researched South Africa profile with sections 12B and 12C, and every other country selectable
- Local-currency costs and power prices at a falling exchange rate
- Debt sized and sculpted on P50 and P90 cover, with reserves, a lock-up and a grant
- Levelised cost of hydrogen by component, and break-even prices for the project, equity and lenders
- Break-even drivers, the grant needed to break even and levelised cost by plant size
- Two-way tables, a wind sizing optimiser and currency sensitivity
- Lender, offtake, wind, stack and upside scenarios, three tornadoes and a Monte Carlo
Build the case
Inputs and workspaces
- CasesLoad the base, PEM, more wind, no export, export price, no grant or concessional case
- Project and wind farmCountry, timeline, electrolyser size, wind oversizing, capacity factor, P90, export connection and the local currency
- Electrolyser and salesTechnology, power use, minimum load, stacks, water, the hydrogen contract, surplus power and oxygen
- Capital and operating costsCapital costs per kW, development, contingency, operation and maintenance, insurance, water and levies
- StaffPositions, headcount and monthly cost in local currency
- FinancingLoan sizing on P50 and P90 cover, gearing, rate, tenor, reserves and the grant
- TaxCorporate tax, capital allowances on the wind farm and the plant, losses and holidays
- Valuation and riskCost of capital, the hydrogen price deck and the Monte Carlo of eight risks
- Due diligenceWind measurement, offtake, licences, grid, environment, water, contracts, safety and certification
Review the result
Outputs and analysis
- Project NPVUSD, at WACC
- Project IRRUnlevered, after tax
- Equity IRRAfter debt service
- WACCDiscount rate
- Levelised cost of hydrogenUSD/kg, at WACC
- Levelised hydrogen priceUSD/kg, contract then merchant
- Break-even hydrogen priceUSD/kg, first operating year
- Price over break-evenContract price headroom
- 27 additional metrics in the workspace
- Financial statementsDetailed schedules
- Lender view, energy, funding & valuationDetailed schedules
- Risk & analyticsDetailed schedules
Designed for review
Who this model is for
- Infrastructure sponsors
- Operating and engineering teams
- Financial advisers
- Investors and lenders
Governed evidence
The review trail stays with the result.
Each completed calculation preserves the model version, saved inputs, reporting-currency snapshot, immutable run, and result fingerprint used for its reports.
- Version-controlled calculation logic
- Saved assumptions and scenarios
- Immutable calculation runs
- Reporting context preserved in exports
Ready to explore the case?