How do production, biological, capacity, and sales assumptions shape the operating plan?
Model profile
Trout Farming
A commercial rainbow trout farm, shipped for the Western Cape, South Africa, with the country chosen from a list of every country. Its own hatchery on all-female broodstock feeds a nursery and a train of concrete raceways fed by gravity from a mountain stream, stocked with a new cohort every month and grown to 1.8 kg salmon trout. Whole fish are sold by size to processors, restaurants and hotels, three tenths of the harvest is cold-smoked and sliced for the supermarket chains, and surplus fingerlings go to stock farm dams. The plan is underwritten on the cover ratios a South African development lender tests.
Decision scope
Questions this model helps you examine
What working capital, asset, debt, and equity funding does the project require?
How do changes in yields, prices, costs, or timing affect returns and resilience?
Model capabilities
What this model includes
The profile below is generated from the same catalogue and workspace definitions used by the application.
- Any country from the list, with South Africa researched
- A cohort stocked every month through a hatchery, a nursery and flow-through raceways
- Fish per cohort solved from tank volume, harvest density and expected survival
- Grow-out split into tank phases, each run near its density ceiling
- Growth driven by the water temperature through a thermal growth coefficient
- Feed by growth stage or from the farm's own mill, and certification priced
- Whole trout sold by size, a cold-smoked trout line, by-products and fingerling sales
- South African company income tax, with no holiday for aquaculture
- Debt service cover on a trailing twelve months, a covenant holiday and dividends behind a reserve
- Cost of production per kilogram, break-even tonnes and break-even price
- Scenarios, tornado, goal seek, stress thresholds and a Monte Carlo with fish and feed prices correlated
- International benchmarks, grow-out phases compared and a fish and feed price grid
- Tanks, biofloc, cages or ponds, loaded as presets and compared side by side
- Fish in the water at cost or at fair value under IAS 41
- A falling local currency against dollar loans, with pass-through shares
Build the case
Inputs and workspaces
- Farming systemTanks, biofloc, cages or ponds: load a system's production settings
- Production systemCountry, tanks, biology, the hatchery and the stocking plan
- Market and costsPrices, sales channels, feed, energy, overheads and working capital
- Price seasonalityFresh-fish price index for each calendar month
- Year-by-year planPrice and cost changes, processed share and fingerling sales for each year
- CAPEX and loansCapital items, replacement cycles, pre-operating costs and the term loans
- LabourRoles, monthly wages, headcount and the month each role starts
- FinancingEquity, the contingency, the covenant and dividends
- AnalyticsTax, valuation, the Monte Carlo and its volatilities
Review the result
Outputs and analysis
- Net present valueAt the discount rate
- Project IRRUnlevered, after tax
- Equity IRRDividends and the exit
- Final-year harvestTonnes
- Final-year revenueLast twelve months
- Final-year EBITDA marginLast twelve months
- Cash cost of productionPer kg harvested
- Average fish revenuePer kg harvested
- 10 additional metrics in the workspace
- Financial statementsDetailed schedules
- Production, costs, covenants & valuationDetailed schedules
Designed for review
Who this model is for
- Farm and project owners
- Operating teams
- Financial advisers
- Investors and lenders
Governed evidence
The review trail stays with the result.
Each completed calculation preserves the model version, saved inputs, reporting-currency snapshot, immutable run, and result fingerprint used for its reports.
- Version-controlled calculation logic
- Saved assumptions and scenarios
- Immutable calculation runs
- Reporting context preserved in exports
Ready to explore the case?