How do production, biological, capacity, and sales assumptions shape the operating plan?
Model profile
Tilapia Farming
A modern intensive tilapia farm, shipped for Greater Accra, Ghana. Its own hatchery feeds a nursery and a train of grow-out tanks stocked with a new cohort every month, so harvest, cash and labour run level instead of arriving twice a year. Each cohort is given the fish its tank volume can carry to harvest, feed follows the biomass gained, fish in the water are carried at cost until they are harvested, and the harvest is sold fresh by size, gutted and packed for Accra's supermarkets and hotels, or as fingerlings to other farms. The plan is underwritten on the cover ratios a Ghanaian lender tests.
Decision scope
Questions this model helps you examine
What working capital, asset, debt, and equity funding does the project require?
How do changes in yields, prices, costs, or timing affect returns and resilience?
Model capabilities
What this model includes
The profile below is generated from the same catalogue and workspace definitions used by the application.
- A cohort stocked every month through a hatchery, a nursery and grow-out tanks
- Fish per cohort solved from tank volume, harvest density and expected survival
- Grow-out split into tank phases, each run near its density ceiling
- Days to harvest from stocking weight, harvest weight and daily growth
- Feed from biomass gained, at starter and grower prices and an economic feed conversion ratio
- Fish in the water held as a biological asset at cost and released at harvest
- Large, table and small fish sold fresh, a gutted and packed line, by-products and fingerling sales
- Aeration energy met from a solar array, the grid and a standby generator
- Ghana's fish-farming tax concession, then the standard rate
- Debt service cover on a trailing twelve months, a covenant holiday and dividends behind a reserve
- Cost of production per kilogram, break-even tonnes and break-even price
- Scenarios, tornado, goal seek, stress thresholds and a Monte Carlo with fish and feed prices correlated
- International benchmarks, grow-out phases compared and a fish and feed price grid
Build the case
Inputs and workspaces
- Production systemTanks, biology, the hatchery and the stocking plan
- Market and costsPrices, sales channels, feed, energy, overheads and working capital
- Price seasonalityFresh-fish price index for each calendar month
- Year-by-year planPrice and cost changes, processed share and fingerling sales for each year
- CAPEX and loansCapital items, replacement cycles, pre-operating costs and the term loans
- LabourRoles, monthly wages, headcount and the month each role starts
- FinancingEquity, the contingency, the covenant and dividends
- AnalyticsTax, valuation, the Monte Carlo and its volatilities
Review the result
Outputs and analysis
- Net present valueAt the discount rate
- Project IRRUnlevered, after tax
- Equity IRRDividends and the exit
- Final-year harvestTonnes
- Final-year revenueLast twelve months
- Final-year EBITDA marginLast twelve months
- Cash cost of productionPer kg harvested
- Average fish revenuePer kg harvested
- 10 additional metrics in the workspace
- Financial statementsDetailed schedules
- Production, costs, covenants & valuationDetailed schedules
Designed for review
Who this model is for
- Farm and project owners
- Operating teams
- Financial advisers
- Investors and lenders
Governed evidence
The review trail stays with the result.
Each completed calculation preserves the model version, saved inputs, reporting-currency snapshot, immutable run, and result fingerprint used for its reports.
- Version-controlled calculation logic
- Saved assumptions and scenarios
- Immutable calculation runs
- Reporting context preserved in exports
Ready to explore the case?