How do posts, rostering, wage floors, and bill rates shape the contract book?
Model profile
Numquants Security Services
Private security company run as one business: manned guarding priced by the post-hour, a monitored recurring book, electronic security installation and a managed cyber desk, with the roster, the overtime, the turnover and the payroll cash gap all modelled rather than assumed.
Decision scope
Questions this model helps you examine
What workforce, recurring revenue, capital programme, and financing does the business require?
How do attrition, wage settlements, and contract renewal downside cases affect returns?
Model capabilities
What this model includes
The profile below is generated from the same catalogue and workspace definitions used by the application.
- The post-hour as the unit of production: contracted, deployable and overtime hours every month
- Relief factor computed from leave, sickness and mandated training, not entered
- Fully loaded pay rate from the statutory grade floor, payroll burden and workers' compensation class
- Wage-to-bill spread and loaded cost per billed hour as outputs, per contract
- Overtime premium charged, recovered only where the contract allows, and the rest reported
- Officer turnover priced through recruitment, unbillable induction hours and the overtime it forces
- Armed posts carried at their own wage premium and compensation class
- Contracts with their own term, retender probability, mobilisation cost and collection days
- Weekly payroll accrued against net-30-to-75 receivables, and the gap financed
- Borrowing-base receivables facility or invoice factoring priced at its true cost
- Monitoring subscriber book with attrition, acquisition cost and creation multiple
- Installation backlog with retentions held to practical completion, pulling monitoring through
- Managed cyber services constrained by an analyst floor, with net revenue retention
- IFRS-style three statements, cover-ratio covenants, break-even and payback
- Sum-of-the-parts valuation: EBITDA multiples for guarding, an RMR multiple for the book
- Named scenarios, goal seek, tornado, VaR/CVaR, correlated Monte Carlo on wages against bill rates
- Real-option decision tree on converting manned posts to remote guarding
Build the case
Inputs and workspaces
- AssumptionsRostering, escalation, insurance, working capital, facilities, tax and cost of capital
- Contracts and postsEach contract's posts, hours, grade, bill rate, term, mobilisation and collection days
- Workforce and complianceOfficer grades, statutory floors, burden, workers' compensation, leave, training and turnover
- Recurring and technologyMonitoring books, installation practice and managed cyber services
- Overheads and financingCentral overheads with their cost-centre split, business development, leases under IFRS 16, capital programme, facilities and investors
- Benchmarks and riskThe published sector bands this plan is measured against, and the threat and risk register
- AnalyticsNamed scenarios, goal seek, correlated Monte Carlo, and the post-conversion decision tree
Review the result
Outputs and analysis
- Project NPVUSD
- Project IRRAnnual
- Equity IRRLevered
- Equity multipleMOIC
- PaybackYears
- Gross marginFinal year
- EBITDA marginFinal year
- Guarding gross marginFinal year
- 67 additional metrics in the workspace
- Financial statementsDetailed schedules
- Operations, workforce and valuationDetailed schedules
- Scenarios and risk analyticsDetailed schedules
Designed for review
Who this model is for
- Security company owners and operators
- Operations and compliance managers
- Financial advisers
- Investors and lenders
Governed evidence
The review trail stays with the result.
Each completed calculation preserves the model version, saved inputs, reporting-currency snapshot, immutable run, and result fingerprint used for its reports.
- Version-controlled calculation logic
- Saved assumptions and scenarios
- Immutable calculation runs
- Reporting context preserved in exports
Ready to explore the case?