How do production, demand, pricing, and channel assumptions shape the commercial plan?
Model profile
Restaurant
A single-site restaurant modelled around the guest rather than the cover. Acquisition channels produce first-time guests; a cohort ledger decides how many come back, how many become regulars, and what each is worth over a lifetime. Capacity binds at the kitchen as well as the dining room, delivery is split into incremental and cannibalised orders, labour behaves as the step cost it really is, and the plan is tested against the fixed charge cover a restaurant lender actually writes.
Decision scope
Questions this model helps you examine
What capacity, working capital, operating cost, and funding does the business require?
How do downside cases and key sensitivities affect cash flow and investment returns?
Model capabilities
What this model includes
The profile below is generated from the same catalogue and workspace definitions used by the application.
- Guest cohort ledger: first-time guests, return rate, progression to regular status, and monthly retention
- Lifetime value, acquisition cost by channel, and the ratio between them, derived from the same rates that drive revenue
- Demand by channel - passing trade, email, social, paid search, print, delivery platforms and word of mouth
- Kitchen throughput constrains every channel, not just the dining room, and turned-away guests return at a lower rate
- Third-party delivery split into incremental and cannibalised orders, so commission is charged against the right base
- Alcohol modelled separately from soft drinks, with its own attach rate, price and cost
- Labour as a step cost: rostered minimums, prep and close hours, payroll taxes and staff turnover
- Prime cost, labour and rent gated against published industry bands
- Pre-opening period with its own costs, and opening losses carried forward against later tax
- Fixed charge and debt service cover on a trailing twelve months, with an explicit covenant holiday
- Break-even, margin of safety, cash trough, payback, net present value and exit multiple
- Tornado, named scenarios, goal seek, stress thresholds and a correlated Monte Carlo
Build the case
Inputs and workspaces
- AssumptionsPremises, capacity, menu and pricing, guest cohort behaviour, labour and fixed costs
- Demand and guestsAcquisition channels, conversion, return and retention rates, and the loyalty programme
- FinancingCapital items, pre-opening, the term facility, covenants and the covenant holiday
- AnalyticsSensitivity, named scenarios, goal seek, stress thresholds and the Monte Carlo
Review the result
Outputs and analysis
- Net present valueAt the discount rate
- Project IRRUnlevered, after tax
- Equity IRRLevered, to the exit
- Steady-state EBITDA marginFinal forecast year
- Prime costFood plus labour over sales
- Labour costShare of sales
- Rent to salesShare of sales
- Minimum fixed charge coverTrailing twelve months
- 7 additional metrics in the workspace
- Financial statementsDetailed schedules
- Guests, capacity, covenants & valuationDetailed schedules
Designed for review
Who this model is for
- Founders and business owners
- Production and commercial teams
- Financial advisers
- Investors and lenders
Governed evidence
The review trail stays with the result.
Each completed calculation preserves the model version, saved inputs, reporting-currency snapshot, immutable run, and result fingerprint used for its reports.
- Version-controlled calculation logic
- Saved assumptions and scenarios
- Immutable calculation runs
- Reporting context preserved in exports
Ready to explore the case?