How do build-out, utilisation, pricing, and operating assumptions shape project performance?
Model profile
PPP Road Financing
A road delivered as a public-private partnership, tested by the government and by its lenders: a 50 km peri-urban toll expressway in sub-Saharan Africa, tolled at rates benchmarked on African toll roads, built under a 30-year concession with a viability gap grant. Other cases: no government support, a minimum revenue guarantee, an availability-payment PPP, public procurement, and the source workbook's own case for reconciliation. Each contract option is compared with public procurement on the public sector's NPV with its retained risks, and the loan is sized on the cover a lender needs when traffic falls short.
Decision scope
Questions this model helps you examine
What capital, replacement, working capital, and financing programme is required?
How resilient are cash flows and returns under operational and market downside cases?
Model capabilities
What this model includes
The profile below is generated from the same catalogue and workspace definitions used by the application.
- Five contract options: public procurement, toll concession, management contract, lease and availability-payment PPP
- Traffic for four vehicle classes with growth, a ramp-up after opening and a lender downside case
- Tolls in a depreciating local currency against a dollar loan, with dollar indexation and local costs
- Senior debt sized on base and downside cover, with annuity, linear or sculpted repayment
- A debt service reserve, a distribution lock-up, periodic resurfacing and interest during construction
- Viability gap grant, minimum revenue guarantee and an availability payment sized to the target return
- Public sector cash flows, a 50-risk register and value for money against the public sector comparator
- Fourteen corrections to the source workbook, which it still reproduces exactly in its reconciliation case
- Named scenarios including a construction delay, a traffic range and break-even drivers
- NPV, equity IRR, DSCR and public NPV tornadoes, currency sensitivity and the support each route needs
Build the case
Inputs and workspaces
- CasesLoad the grant, no-support, guarantee, availability, public procurement or source workbook case
- Project and contractContract option, timeline, construction spending, contract terms and the local currency
- Road, traffic and tollsRoad length, traffic by vehicle class, growth, ramp-up and tolls
- CostsConstruction, operation, staff, routine maintenance and resurfacing
- Government supportViability gap grant, revenue sharing, minimum revenue guarantee and the availability payment
- FinancingLoan sizing on base and downside cover, repayment, fees, reserve and lock-up
- Prices, tax and valuationInflation, indexation, currency, tax, discount rates and the target equity return
- Due diligenceTraffic study, land, environment, the PPP agreement, tariff, contracts, support and currency
Review the result
Outputs and analysis
- Private SPV NPVUSD m, at its discount rate
- Project IRRNominal, before financing
- Equity IRRNominal
- Equity IRR, realAgainst the target
- Target equity IRR, realInvestor hurdle
- Minimum DSCRBase case
- Minimum DSCR, downsideLender downside traffic
- Loan life cover ratioLowest
- 13 additional metrics in the workspace
- Financial statementsDetailed schedules
- Lender view, value for money & fundingDetailed schedules
- Risk & analyticsDetailed schedules
Designed for review
Who this model is for
- Infrastructure sponsors
- Operating and engineering teams
- Financial advisers
- Investors and lenders
Governed evidence
The review trail stays with the result.
Each completed calculation preserves the model version, saved inputs, reporting-currency snapshot, immutable run, and result fingerprint used for its reports.
- Version-controlled calculation logic
- Saved assumptions and scenarios
- Immutable calculation runs
- Reporting context preserved in exports
Ready to explore the case?