How do production, demand, pricing, and channel assumptions shape the commercial plan?
Model profile
Coffee Shop
A single-site coffee bar modelled around the two things that decide whether one lives: the morning rush and the customer who comes every day. The trading day is divided into dayparts, each with its own arrivals, dwell, takeaway share and food attachment, and capacity is applied inside each part against the bar and the till rather than against a room. Where the queue builds, customers balk and return at a lower rate afterwards. A habit ledger moves first-timers into occasional custom and on into the routine that carries the shop, drawing on a settled catchment that is finite and depletes as it is won. Every drink is costed from its recipe, so the coffee price and the milk price are drivers rather than percentages, and the plan is underwritten on the fixed charge cover a small-format lender actually writes.
Decision scope
Questions this model helps you examine
What capacity, working capital, operating cost, and funding does the business require?
How do downside cases and key sensitivities affect cash flow and investment returns?
Model capabilities
What this model includes
The profile below is generated from the same catalogue and workspace definitions used by the application.
- Daypart schedule: the rush, the lull and the afternoon each with their own arrivals, dwell, takeaway share and basket
- Bar and till capacity emerging from the rostered crew and the counter stations behind it, not from an assumed peak
- An expected queue with balking, so under-investment in the bar costs trade now and regulars later
- Habit ledger: first visit, the return, the routine, and the monthly retention that carries a settled shop
- A finite settled catchment that depletes as it is won, refreshes on turnover and win-back, and is kept apart from transient trade that cannot form a habit
- Drinks costed from the recipe in grams of coffee and millilitres of milk, so a commodity shock is an input rather than a rewrite
- Alternative milk share, its cost premium and the surcharge that pays for it
- Bakery ordered to a forecast, with waste, markdown recovery, comps and staff drinks
- Loyalty stamps and an optional subscription whose margin dilution is explicit
- Labour rostered to a target utilisation rather than to the mean arrival rate, with payroll taxes and counter-service turnover
- Cost of goods, labour, prime cost and rent gated against the sector's published bands
- Fixed charge and debt service cover on a trailing twelve months, with a covenant holiday for the ramp
- Break-even in transactions per trading day, the only break-even a till can report
- A single-site exit multiple with the share of value coming from the terminal assumption published and tested
- Tornado, named scenarios, goal seek, stress thresholds and a correlated Monte Carlo on the coffee price
Build the case
Inputs and workspaces
- AssumptionsPremises, the bar and the counter, drinks and recipes, food and waste, labour and fixed costs
- MenuDrinks and their recipes, cup sizes, milks and their surcharges, and the food counter
- Demand and customersCatchment, transient trade, acquisition channels, the habit ledger, loyalty and subscription
- FinancingCapital items, pre-opening, the term facility, covenants and the covenant holiday
- AnalyticsSensitivity, named scenarios, goal seek, stress thresholds and the Monte Carlo
Review the result
Outputs and analysis
- Net present valueAt the discount rate
- Project IRRUnlevered, after tax
- Equity IRRLevered, to the exit
- Steady-state EBITDA marginFinal forecast year
- Transactions per trading dayFinal forecast year
- Average ticketNet revenue per transaction
- Average price per drinkAcross the menu, sizes and milks
- Average cost per drinkFrom the recipes
- 16 additional metrics in the workspace
- Financial statementsDetailed schedules
- Dayparts, customers, covenants & valuationDetailed schedules
Designed for review
Who this model is for
- Founders and business owners
- Production and commercial teams
- Financial advisers
- Investors and lenders
Governed evidence
The review trail stays with the result.
Each completed calculation preserves the model version, saved inputs, reporting-currency snapshot, immutable run, and result fingerprint used for its reports.
- Version-controlled calculation logic
- Saved assumptions and scenarios
- Immutable calculation runs
- Reporting context preserved in exports
Ready to explore the case?